Giro d’Italia: What can we expect from Tadej Pogačar on the earliest summit finish since 1989?

Over the 160.9km and 2,301m of climbing between San Francesco al Campo and the Roman Catholic settlement of Santuario di Oropa, the candidates to win this year’s maglia rosa will engage in their second showdown in as many days on stage 2 of the Giro d’Italia.

It will be the first summit finish of the race and could offer an early indication as to who might - and importantly, who might not - win this year’s race.

Undeterred by the explosive opening act, the Giro d’Italia will allow no let up on the second day, with race organisers RCS Sport having planned the earliest summit finish seen at the Giro since 1989. Some 35 years on, the Giro d’Italia will head to the fabled slopes of the Santuario di Oropa, best known as the site of Marco Pantani’s demolition job in 1999.

That year, the Italian passed a reported 49 riders as he not only recovered from a puncture at the foot of the climb, but produced one of the most scintillating performances of all time to win the stage and forever etch his name onto the roads of the Oropa.

As for what we can expect as the top climbers go toe to toe this time around, Geraint Thomas (Ineos Grenadiers) was in no two minds when speaking to the media after the finish on Saturday afternoon.

“Pogačar’s going to probably drop a bomb again, we’ll see who can follow basically,” the Welshman said, his words echoing the thoughts of most heading into the race - that Pogačar would attack the opening weekend in earnest and prove a difficult man to stop.

Read more: Geraint Thomas shares his delight as Ineos Grenadiers’ secret pays off at Giro d’Italia

But how likely is a Pogačar victory on Sunday afternoon and what would that say of his chances to win the race come Rome in three weeks?

History does not favour the winner of first summit finish

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Marco Pantani on his way to winning at Oropa in 1999

Ever since Tadej Pogačar’s Giro participation was revealed at UAE Team Emirates’ training camp, expectations have steadily risen around his status as the winner-in-waiting. Such expectation reached a fever pitch on the eve of the race as some corners of the media began to ponder the possibility that the Slovenian may hold the lead of the Giro from start to finish, much like Gianni Bugno in 1990.

But that premonition was crushed on stage 1, as Ineos Grenadiers’ Jhonatan Narváez produced a gutsy ride to cling onto the back wheel of Pogačar and outsprint he and Max Schachmann (Bora-Hansgrohe) in a three-up sprint for the race’s first maglia rosa.

Pogačar was visibly frustrated after the finish and will no doubt hope to make amends on stage 2.

“Tomorrow is more a stage suited to us, I would say, and we will see tomorrow how the legs are from today’s effort,” he said in an interview conducted by his team.

The two-time Tour de France winner should be wary of giving too much, too soon, however, as history tells us that the first summit finish is not the moment for the champion-elect to show their face.

Since the turn of the century, the eventual winner of each Giro d’Italia has only won the first summit finish on three occasions, those being Paolo Savoldelli, Ivan Basso and Danilo di Luca in a three-year period between 2005 and 2007. It might seem surprising that in the 21 other editions, the would-be winner has waited until later in the race to make his mark, but there are two key reasons why we might not expect this year’s champion to be the rider raising their arms on Sunday.

Firstly, more often than not over the last decade, the first summit finish of the race has been won by the breakaway, with the likes of Davide Bais, Jonathan Caicedo and Tim Wellens all triumphant in editions won by Primož Roglič, Tao Geoghegan Hart and Vincenzo Nibali, respectively. Moreover, it is the norm for the Giro to be decided in the final week, something that the top candidates take into account when preparing for the race.

Read more: Thymen Arensman’s father lashes out at Ineos Grenadiers after Giro d’Italia disappointment

Four years ago, Ineos Grenadiers’ own Geoghegan Hart lost 1:42 to the best of the GC candidates on the first summit finish atop Mount Etna, before famously flipping the script in the third week and winning his first Grand Tour. As Thomas was quick to note on Saturday afternoon, the 14-second time loss accrued by most of the contenders to Pogačar on stage 1 will fade into insignificance by the final week of racing.

By that point, the Slovenian may well have amassed several minutes over his rivals, as was the pre-race expectation, but Pogačar’s UAE Team Emirates showed enough fallibility to give their opponents some hope heading into the stage to Oropa.

Are UAE Team Emirates strong enough to support Pogačar?

Pogačar’s performance on the opening day in Turin spoke for itself. The 25-year-old may not have clinched the maglia rosa he desired, but he certainly sent a message to his rivals as he left them in his rearview mirror on the final climb. That being said, prior to his defining acceleration on the San Vito, Pogačar only had one teammate left at his side, in the form of dependable mountain domestique Rafał Majka.

To explain their lack of numbers in the finale, UAE Team Emirates were quick to point to their duties of pace-setting earlier in the stage, but both Schachmann and Thomas noted the relative ease of the day’s previous climbs. For UAE Team Emirates to have only one teammate left, then, by the final climb, might be a cause for concern.

For all of Pogačar’s dominance in the early months of the season, no rider can win a Grand Tour without a strong team and that was evidenced at the 2022 Tour de France when the Slovenian was left isolated and vulnerable to the race-winning attacks of Jumbo-Visma.

Ineos Grenadiers will honour the maglia rosa

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Jhonatan Narváez (Ineos Grenadiers) in the maglia rosa at the Giro d'Italia

As most of the GC contenders finished together in a group 10 seconds down on Pogačar, Ben O’Connor (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Damiano Caruso (Bahrain Victorious) and Cian Uijtdebroeks (Visma-Lease a Bike) among them, it was the surprise package Narváez who edged out the Slovenian to pull on the first maglia rosa of the race.

The Ecuadorian national champion may be best described as a Classics rider with a strong sprint, but his Ineos Grenadiers team are not ruling out the 27-year-old from retaining the lead of the race on the slopes of Oropa.

“The way Jonny is going, who knows, maybe he can hold on, it would be great if he could,” said teammate Thomas. “As we saw today, that group over the top was still a fair amount of bike riders there so I think it will be hard tomorrow but we’ll see.”

Their lead DS Dempster confirmed that the team would ride to defend the jersey for as long as possible, which could sound a death knell to the hopes of a breakaway victory on stage 2 and tee up an opportunity for Pogačar, Thomas and co to battle it out towards the summit.

Averaging 5.9% and maxing out at 14.6%, the Santuatio di Oropa is not the toughest climb of the Giro, but Tom Dumoulin proved that the strongest rider can win here with his victory in 2017. With Pogačar keen on revenge and Ineos Grenadiers happy to defend the jersey, expect to see the maglia rosa contenders go hammer and tongue for stage honours.

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